Ember
Founder-led execution scaling through targeted operational hires
Founder-led execution scaling through targeted operational hires
Hardware-agnostic whole-home AI; savings-share alignment; deep energy-markets team; light, high-margin product
Pre-revenue; depends on installer and utility partners; hardware integrations to maintain across brands
$40B US market opening; spreading time-of-use tariffs; growing VPP payments; cheap home storage
Hardware makers extending their own apps; utility programme changes; slow procurement cycles
Moderate: software is buildable, but data flywheel and utility certifications raise the bar
Low: hardware-agnostic design avoids dependence on any single equipment supplier
Moderate: single-brand tools and utility schemes exist, but none runs the whole home
Moderate: homeowners can switch apps, but savings-share and results build strong loyalty
Low: manual timers and doing nothing leave most savings on the table
Supportive: clean-energy and grid-flexibility policy favours home participation
Favourable: rising and volatile power prices widen the savings Ember captures
Strong: homeowners want lower bills and control without daily effort
Enabling: cheap storage, EV adoption and open device APIs make optimisation possible
Positive: shifting load to clean hours cuts household carbon
Manageable: utility tariff and VPP rules vary by state, handled via certification
Solar and battery installers, US utilities, hardware brands, cloud providers
Build forecasting AI, integrate hardware, run optimisation, manage VPP dispatch
One AI that runs solar, battery and EV so the home is always on the cheap side of the grid
Automated, self-serve, savings-share trust, responsive support on Ember Max
US homeowners with solar, batteries or EVs on time-of-use tariffs
Forecasting AI, whole-home data, utility certifications, installer network
Installer bundles, utility partnerships, direct app, referrals
Cloud and AI compute, hardware, engineering team, partner support
Subscriptions ($12 to $29/mo), 20% savings-share, grid-services revenue
Homes overpay for power and leave solar, battery and EV unmanaged
One AI that runs the whole home and buys, stores and sells power automatically
Always on the cheap side of the grid, paid only when you save
Hardware-agnostic whole-home data plus savings-share alignment
US homeowners with solar, battery or EV on time-of-use tariffs
Homes on platform, revenue per home, savings delivered, churn
Installers, utilities, direct app, referrals
Cloud and AI compute, hardware, engineering, partner support
Subscriptions, 20% savings-share, grid-services revenue
Lean, AI-run operations, around 18 people at launch
Energy-markets, AI and hardware talent, deliberately small
Forecasting AI and optimisation engine, the core asset
Cloud compute, hardware components, tariff and grid data
Installer and utility partner onboarding
Run optimisation and VPP dispatch across homes
App delivery, savings reporting, grid settlement
Partner-led acquisition plus referrals and content
Automated support, priority help on Ember Max
Ember: high value, low effort, brand-independent whole-home optimiser
Premium single-brand ecosystems that lock homes to one maker
Manual timers and free apps that ignore live prices
Costly installers setting fixed schedules with little ongoing value
Cut my power bill without changing how I live
Feel in control and stop worrying about energy prices
Look smart and responsible to family and neighbours
Confusing tariffs, unmanaged kit, no time to optimise
Automatic savings, grid earnings, one simple app
Manual timers, single-device apps, doing nothing
$128 to $196 blended, falling as installer channels mature
$450 to $750 as homes upgrade to Ember Max
0.4x rising to 4.5x by Year 5
About 12 months
Ramps toward 65% at scale
Low, kept down by savings-share alignment
Win more solar-and-battery homes in existing utility markets
Add EV charging and VPP tiers to current customers
Enter new US utility markets as tariffs spread
New grid-services products for utilities and aggregators
| Criterion | Assessment |
|---|---|
| Valuable | Yes: delivers real, measurable savings and grid earnings |
| Rare | Yes: no brand-independent whole-home optimiser exists today |
| Inimitable | Yes: whole-home data flywheel and utility ties are hard to copy |
| Organized | Yes: lean AI-run team built to exploit the advantage |
Hardware brands close their APIs: maintain broad integrations and partnerships
Slow utility procurement: certify early and diversify markets
Tariff structures change: forecasting adapts automatically
Channel dependence: balance installers, utilities and referrals