market_report

6.1 Market

Slide 1 - Cover (LAVisions layout)layout: title_hero · 16:9
Market Opportunity
The market moving onto the cheap side of the grid.
MK 01 / 10
Large, growing and wide open, ready for a whole-home optimiser
A large, mainstream market opening across every US home
TAMSAMSOM
$40BEvery US home's yearly power spend software can optimise
US homes x annual electricity spend x optimisable share
Ember analysis, US home energy, 2026
$9BHomes that already own solar and a home battery
Solar-and-battery homes x annual optimisable spend
Ember analysis of US solar-plus-storage homes, 2026
$74.2MThe Year 5 run-rate Ember reaches at 312k homes
312k homes x roughly $19 per home each month
Ember financial model, Year 5 run-rate
MK 02 / 10
why now
Four shifts are opening this market at the same time
01
Time-of-use tariffs
US utilities are moving homes onto hourly pricing, widening the cheap-to-peak spread.
02
Cheap home batteries
Battery prices have fallen sharply, so storage now sits in ordinary homes.
03
EVs and VPPs
EVs are everywhere and grids now pay homes for flexibility through VPP programmes.
MK 03 / 10
Business model
Software with usage revenue
Main income
Subscriptions at $12 and $29 per home per month
Savings-share keeps 20% of arbitrage, plus grid-services revenue
Unit economics
Unit Economics
Blended revenue per home rises from about $9 to $19 a month
MK 04 / 10
Total Addressable Market
A bottom-up build from US homes and their energy spend Total addressable market = Homes x Annual spend x Optimisable share Segmented by hardware maturity: solar-and-battery homes, solar-only homes, and EV or smart-panel homes, three non-overlapping groups covering the addressable base. unit_a = addressable US homes in segment; unit_b = annual home electricity spend; unit_c = share of that spend software can optimise
$40B
Solar-and-battery homes Homes 5M Annual spend $1,800 Optimisable share $1,000 $9B
Solar-only homes Homes 12M Annual spend $1,700 Optimisable share $750 $9B
EV or smart-panel homes Homes 25M Annual spend $1,760 Optimisable share $880 $22B
Assumes optimisable share grows as time-of-use tariffs spread Ember analysis, US home energy, 2026
MK 05 / 10
Serviceable Addressable Market $9B

Filters applied to TAM:

Hardware: home already owns solar and a battery - 40% excludes homes with no storage to arbitrage
Tariff: on a time-of-use electricity plan - 70% excludes flat-rate homes with no price spread to capture
Readiness: connected kit Ember can control - 85% excludes older equipment without an open interface
Reachable: served by a partner installer or utility - 95% excludes markets Ember has not yet entered
$40B x 40% x 70% x 85% x 95% = $9B
TAM
× 90%
× 89%
× 99%
× 99%
SAM
MK 06 / 10
Serviceable Obtainable Market 375k $74.2M
Year Homes Months paying Revenue per home $86.7M
Y1 0 0 $0 $0
Y2 15k 12 $9 $1.7M
Y3 69k 12 $12 $12.1M
Y4 169k 12 $16 $36.2M
Y5 312k 12 $19 $86.7M
Active users01M2M3M4M150K600K1.4M2.6M3.8MYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
MK 07 / 10
Industry Growth and CAGRAbout 20% growth through 2030
1×2×3×1.0×3.3×27% CAGR202520262027202820292030Ember analysis, 2026
US home battery installs grew rapidly through 2025 | https://example.com
Utilities expanding time-of-use tariffs across states | https://example.com
EV sales climbing toward a large flexible load | https://example.com
VPP capacity paid by grids scaling each year | https://example.com
MK 08 / 10
Market Challenges Four barriers keep incumbents out, and each one favours Ember
Fragmented hardware brands No single app controls solar, battery and EV together Ember is hardware-agnostic, so fragmentation is our advantage
Slow utility procurement Grid programmes take months to certify and integrate Early certifications build a moat competitors must repeat
Consumer trust in savings Homeowners doubt vague savings claims from apps Savings-share means Ember is paid only when the home saves
Tariff complexity Time-of-use plans vary by utility and confuse buyers Ember's forecasting turns tariff complexity into automatic savings
MK 09 / 10
Key Takeaway Large, growing, underserved, ready for a whole-home optimiser
Total Addressable Market $40B
Serviceable Addressable Market $9B
Serviceable Obtainable Market $74.2M
Compound Annual Growth Rate 20%
MK 10 / 10